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Al Qaeda Threat Changing, Growing

It's not really news that our attacks on al-Qaeda have dispersed the organization, resulting in a decentralized network and ideological position that still presents an ominous threat to American. The British think tank IISS produced the best analysis on the subject almost a year ago [summary here; other reports on IISS reports here, here, here].

I should say it's not news to anyone who has been closely following the situation. It is, apparently, news to the Bush administration though.

[O]fficials warn that the Bush administration's upbeat assessment of its successes is overly optimistic and masks its strategic failure to understand and combat Al Qaeda's evolution. [LA Times, archive here]
Part of the problem is that the US strategy - the deck of cards model - is ineffective or even counterproductive:
"Anti-terrorism experts who fault the administration's strategy and its optimism argue that concentrating on individual plots and operatives obscures the need to address the broader dimensions of Islamic extremism and makes it impossible to mount an effective defense."
The LAT article is worth a full read.

When you hear John Kerry say that "we have traded a dictator for a chaos that has left America less secure," thank God that at least one candidate cares about reality. This Palm Beach Post editorial says it well.


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