Via Pandagon, John Diamond of USA Today has a comprehensive look at pre-war intelligence on the risk of a protracted insurgency. The data points:
- "On Point," an "official Army report" on the Iraq war, tells of the first use of guerilla tactics at "precisely 9 a.m. on March 22, 2003."
- "Intelligence reports compiled in January 2003 [by the National Intelligence Council] predicted that an American invasion would result in a divided Iraq prone to internal violence, and increased sympathy in the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, the New York Times reported on Tuesday." [Reuters 9/28/04] See also Guardian 9/29/04; NYT via IHT 9/28/04.
- Army War College report to the Army's No. 2 general a month before the invasion: "The longer U.S. presence is maintained, the more likely violent resistance will develop...A force initially viewed as liberators can rapidly be relegated to the status of invaders." A short version of the report is available here [PDF]; the full version is available here.
- British foreign policy adviser Sir David Manning told Tony Blair in March 2002: "There is a real risk that the administration underestimates the difficulties." [Telegraph 9/18/04]