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11/05/2004

Brutal

My heels are still bruised from knocking on 1200 doors in Louisville, KY. When I shower, my feet burn, still cracked from walking miles in a driving rain.

We lost Kentucky bad. The results are available on the KY election results site, but I'll run down some highlights:

  • KY 3: Anne Northup held onto her seat, absolutely destroying Tony Miller. This is the race I was working on, and we were clearly and painfully hampered by the weakness of our candidate. My liberal friends in the area thought Miller was a laughingstock, an idiot of Bushian proportions. Throughout the weekend his debate with Northup was replaying on public television, and he looked woefully uninformed and underbriefed. Northup would respond to his stump speech attacks on her, and Miller would simply repeat them. A lot of people split their ticket, going for Kerry/Edwards, Mongiardo, and Northup.

    Kerry/Edwards: 50.4% (170,114)
    Bush/Cheney: 48.8% (164,547)

    Mongiardo: 59.6% (198,494)
    Bunning: 40.4% (134,683)

    Miller 37.8% (123,997)
    Northup 60.3% (197,714)

    In favor of Constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage: 60.2% (186,716)
    Against Constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage: 39.8% (123,671)

    Mongiardo crushed Bunning by almost 64,000 votes in Jefferson County/Louisville, Kerry won by 6000 votes, and Miller lost by 74,000 votes. Part of this is explained by Northup's bipartisan support, predicated on her ability to bring home approprations for the District. The willingness to split tickets is a sign of swing voters - the 2004 results indicate that there are 70,000 swing voters in play in Louisville, more than 20% of the electorate. Most of these are sporadic voters, but they're still out there.

    Miller's performance is nearly identical with the gay marriage amendment vote - precinct data will show how highly correlated, but it is probably an accurate reflection of the Democratic base vote. That Miller failed to get anything more than the base vote is a damning indictment of his campaign.

    Northup's seat will likely remain one of the two or three highest Democratic performance districts held by a Republican.

  • KY 4: This race hurt a lot more than the Miller race. Nick Clooney was by far the superior candidate. He was well liked throughout the district, had high name recognition, and ran an excellent campaign. His opponent wasn't qualified to be dogcatcher. The Republican base in KY4 may be over 50% now.

    Clooney: 43.9% (129,872)
    Davis: 54.4% (160,982)

  • Senate: Just looking through the county level data, Mongiardo won Eastern KY, held his own in central KY, and won Jefferson County big. He lost Northern KY (KY4) and Western KY (KY1 & KY2) big. He lost the state by around 18000 votes.

    Bunning is an idiot, and has been since he was in Congress when he represented Northern KY. His roots there, combined with its social conservatism, explain the resilience of his performance there. I haven't tried to explain his performance in Western KY, but as the "Southern" part of the state, it's probably related to the gay marriage amendment.

 

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